We are facing unprecedented times. But they are not nearly as scary as media (both classical and social), and your mind, are making this out to be.
In the UK, there were 616,014 deaths in 2018. That is nearly 1,700 deaths PER DAY. Coronavirus deaths in the UK since it started, about 30 days ago, now total 104. (in context, over the same 30 days, approximately 51,000 people have died in the UK).
Now lets play out some simple, specific numbers. We will assume the absolute largest number of infections possible in the UK, which would be 100% of the total population or 67,785,240. Then, let’s take the current mortality and expected survival rate, globally, based on confirmed cases of 218,723 and confirmed deaths of 8,943 so far. Using these figures we get a 4.1% mortality rate and 95.9% projected survival rate.
If we remove Italy from these numbers, but leave in the other 172 countries and territories, with at least one confirmed case, the rates change to 3.3% mortality rate and 96.7% survival rate. Finally, if we use Germany, as a best case, which has the 5th highest number of confirmed cases at 12,327 and deaths at 28, it would give them a mortality rate of 0.2% and therefore a survival rate of 99.8%. This is only 0.1% higher than the seasonal flu. Context is critical.
So perhaps at best, we could direct the 70+ population, along with those with underlying conditions of all ages, to self-isolate, and request that the rest of the country get this virus. This could lead to between 153,969 and 2,236,912 deaths. However, experts believe only 50%-80% of people will actually get infected, which could bring these numbers down by almost half. In addition, by removing the vulnerable population from the equation, we are more likely to trend closer to the 153,969 or a UK survival figure of 67,631,271.
Context is critical. The world governments have pumped trillions of dollars into the economy, in the last week, to no positive effect. Few people are consuming, other than the basics, due to fear or government imposed restrictions on movement. And we have only just begun, as we have just passed 200,000 confirmed cases with millions more expected. With markets collapsing, millions predicted to be unemployed and/or the governments straining to pay for everything and everyone to keep going, might there now be a better way?
Perhaps the healthy 6-60 year olds could offer to get this mild (for healthy people) flu-like virus, while the higher risk groups self-isolate (as mentioned above). Experts seem to think 50%-80% of the population will be infected at some point. If this is inevitable, why not sign up now to get it and save the economy and livelihoods and still save a lot of people. If you want to read a very brief draft outline of one way we could do this, click here.
Yes, there may not be enough hospital beds. But people tend to die in the field of battle during a war. And this is looking a lot like a war.
