I read a friend‘s Facebook post this morning where he noted we were in the middle of one of the greatest periods of uncertainty. Are these uncertain times? I should rephrase that to, ”Is it any more uncertain than usual”?
I believe I understood what he was saying, and on the surface I agreed, but it got me thinking.
Yes, probably most of us feel uncertain about the future right now and where this whole crazy situation is going to lead us. Though is that uncertainty any different from March 2019? Or are we simply more aware of the uncertainty?
Life is entirely uncertain. In the future at least.
There is no certainty around when you will meet your perfect match or fall in love. We don’t know if today we will get a call from an old friend, have a heart attack or fender bender, or find a £5 note on the ground.
We pretend there is certainty in our daily lives. We might like to think our lives are stable and not changing. But it is an illusion. We have our routines and expectations which help keep us calm and help us to believe there is certainty. Though, at any second, that routine can be changed by an external factor: Good or bad.
I think we live with constant change and constant uncertainty. Fortunately we don’t usually think about our future as much as we do right now.
Coronavirus Exit Strategy: Use empty hotels to develop Herd Immunity
Stopping this market meltdown, and the fast growing financial and social challenges, requires two things:
1. Making livelihoods our absolute focus (while still saving lives impacted by Coronavirus and managing hospital beds) and
2. Providing a clearly defined end date to this situation. This can be done by immediately starting to develop herd immunity by creating a Government Organised Voluntary Infection (GOVI) programme, for healthy people, in all the UK’s empty hotels
The Problem:
The market, and people generally, require certainty so they can move forward confidently. Currently there is no certainty when considering the end to this pandemic*. Hoping for a viable vaccine provides no certainty. It is like hoping to win the lottery: It’s worth trying, but don’t count on it as your only strategy.
The Solution:
We need a clear, time-bound exit strategy that can show progress is happening and has a clearly defined end date. A GOVI programme would do both.
GOVI explained:
While people are self-isolating in this Suppression Phase, we can roll out a government organised voluntary infection (GOVI) programme at designated hotels (all UK hotels). The GOVI programme would be similar to the idea of chicken pox parties, where healthy children would get together with an infected child and get infected to be done with it. If 50%-80% of the healthy 6-60 population are going to get the Coronavirus at some time anyway, with mostly mild symptoms, why not get it over with?
For WWII, people volunteered to fight in the war effort knowing that there was a significant risk of death or serious injury. These recruits were checked for being in good health (i.e. no underlying conditions) and then sent off to battle the enemy. With more than 700,000 (mostly empty) hotel rooms in the UK alone, the government could pay hotels to host people who are 20-50 years old, and with no underlying conditions, who volunteer to contract the virus under supervision. They would get checked out by a GP, and if ok, they would go to a government designated hotel where they would contract the virus and stay in the hotel for 7-10 days, until ‘immune’. The volunteers are then checked/tested by a doctor before leaving the hotel to confirm their immunity. Once immune, the volunteer gets a document and badge noting that they can re-enter society.
The government would need to authorise and organise this phase to maintain a controlled spread of the virus. They would need to set out the plan of action, acknowledge the challenges and risks involved and call out for suitable volunteers.
GOVI benefits :
In theory we could have c.700,000 very low risk people gaining immunity every 10 days. Over the next 12 weeks (84 days), we could have roughly 5 million people gaining immunity. This could be happening while the 70+ group and the Underlying Condition (UC) group are protected through self-isolation. Additionally, we could continue to have strong social distancing/lockdown policies in place (Suppression Phase), continue testing and encourage scientists to search for and progress a possible vaccine: all concurrently.
It’s more Churchill D-Day then Chamberlain “Peace for our time”. Let’s take the battle to the enemy rather than try to avoid the inevitable. Advance on the enemy rather than simply shield the citizens from harm.
A war time army of volunteers is required and I believe many would be willing to do this. Since there seems to be an overwhelmingly high recovery rate for healthy people aged 18-50 (99.7%), let’s get it and get on with it.
The ever-growing Immune Army can then help high risk people, relieve care workers, support hospital workers and others, or just get back to work. Ever more volunteers will spend a week in the designated hotels until huge swathes of the population are immune.
Within one year, about half of the young and healthy population (25 million people) in the UK will be immune, without having overrun the NHS. In 2 years, most under 70’s and those without known underlying conditions would have immunity (c.55 million). After communicating this plan, normalcy will start to return in weeks to months, demand will return, markets will stop the slide and maybe reverse, and the world can start to mend.
Summary:
Without creating certainty with a credible exit strategy, the markets will continue in meltdown, workers will be laid off, industries will collapse, and the government will have to finance the entire economy, possibly for years. Adding a GOVI programme in parallel to the other strategies/phases being employed, could greatly improve our chances of saving the most lives, from all causes. In addition, the GOVI programme will also put a floor in the economy with a certain and time-bound exit strategy, which will stop the markets sliding. Finally, this additional strategy could save billions of people from suffering through the severe, drawn out, Depression era future that the trends seem to indicate we are heading for.
Link to Mervyn King on CNBC, on Monday, referring to no viable exit strategy, from minute 8:45 to 9:20 (so 35 seconds long).
* Link to Mervyn King on CNBC, on Monday, referring to no viable exit strategy, from minute 8:45 to 9:20 (so 35 seconds long).
FIND MORE DETAIL:
I have added several follow up thoughts for you on my blog website page called Coronavirus Exit Strategy: GOVI. Points covered consider the next 2-3 years and our options. I’ve also added some sources and supporting detail,
For some, this is a great time to take stock and think through what they truly want to do in this life. For others, it may have become so crazy busy that they don’t have a moment to pause and think about anything other than the next government announcement and its implications.
Without all the usual kids activities and appointments to arrange and get to, some people may have a few extra minutes (hours) in their day. Or maybe you no longer need to “get ready and commute”, so you may have a little more time now.
For those of you with a little extra time, this is a great opportunity to consider what kind of life you want to look back on when you are 85 years old. What do you want to remember when you are going through your photo albums or chatting to friends or younger relatives. Life flies by quickly, so don’t delay.
Block out an hour in your calendar on a day this week. Be specific with exactly what hour and day it is. It is an appointment with yourself. Then, when that time comes, do nothing else other than reflect and write out a list of things you would love to do, be or have in your life, between now and 85 (125 if you’re already well up there).
Just write all the things that come to mind. Ideally you will do an electronic list which you can save and sort out later on. But it could also be written on a sheet of paper or in a journal. You can always take a photo of it and file it on a device for easy finding later on.
The list does not have to be realistic, believable, conventional, exciting or anything really. What it should be though is a specific list of things on your mind and in your imagination. It could be things like: Spending two weeks on a golden sand beach in the Caribbean, helping your grandson learn French, walking on Mars, writing a funny novel, buying some art from a local artist, becoming a pilot, writing a letter to a loved one, collecting rare stamps or watching The Bucket List (enjoyable movie to get your thoughts flowing – good for most kids too).
This list-writing can be a challenge. Some find this exercise easy and some difficult. Either way, I suggest you do it. Now is a good time. It will give you a focus on things you are looking forward to, once we get life back to something approaching normal. It also helps you clarify what is important. Have fun with it.
We are facing unprecedented times. But they are not nearly as scary as media (both classical and social), and your mind, are making this out to be.
In the UK, there were 616,014 deaths in 2018. That is nearly 1,700 deaths PER DAY. Coronavirus deaths in the UK since it started, about 30 days ago, now total 104. (in context, over the same 30 days, approximately 51,000 people have died in the UK).
Now lets play out some simple, specific numbers. We will assume the absolute largest number of infections possible in the UK, which would be 100% of the total population or 67,785,240. Then, let’s take the current mortality and expected survival rate, globally, based on confirmed cases of 218,723 and confirmed deaths of 8,943 so far. Using these figures we get a 4.1% mortality rate and 95.9% projected survival rate.
If we remove Italy from these numbers, but leave in the other 172 countries and territories, with at least one confirmed case, the rates change to 3.3% mortality rate and 96.7% survival rate. Finally, if we use Germany, as a best case, which has the 5th highest number of confirmed cases at 12,327 and deaths at 28, it would give them a mortality rate of 0.2% and therefore a survival rate of 99.8%. This is only 0.1% higher than the seasonal flu. Context is critical.
So perhaps at best, we could direct the 70+ population, along with those with underlying conditions of all ages, to self-isolate, and request that the rest of the country get this virus. This could lead to between 153,969 and 2,236,912 deaths. However, experts believe only 50%-80% of people will actually get infected, which could bring these numbers down by almost half. In addition, by removing the vulnerable population from the equation, we are more likely to trend closer to the 153,969 or a UK survival figure of 67,631,271.
Context is critical. The world governments have pumped trillions of dollars into the economy, in the last week, to no positive effect. Few people are consuming, other than the basics, due to fear or government imposed restrictions on movement. And we have only just begun, as we have just passed 200,000 confirmed cases with millions more expected. With markets collapsing, millions predicted to be unemployed and/or the governments straining to pay for everything and everyone to keep going, might there now be a better way?
Perhaps the healthy 6-60 year olds could offer to get this mild (for healthy people) flu-like virus, while the higher risk groups self-isolate (as mentioned above). Experts seem to think 50%-80% of the population will be infected at some point. If this is inevitable, why not sign up now to get it and save the economy and livelihoodsandstill save a lot of people. If you want to read a very brief draft outline of one way we could do this, click here.
Yes, there may not be enough hospital beds. But people tend to die in the field of battle during a war. And this is looking a lot like a war.
You may be frequently frustrated if you often use generalisations and the sample size of one. Using words like “they”, “the government”, “everybody” and “no one” can feel good at the time, and can help you speak more quickly, but to your detriment.
In the long run, it is to your advantage to be more precise in the words you speak.
Being more precise in your word selection and word order will make you sound like a more polished individual. You will be clearer and others will understand you better.
A particular time in life, when being specific is more beneficial, is when you are setting your goals. ‘They said I could join them to climb a mountain‘ is good but not nearly as useful as “My climbing instructor, Dave, said I could join their expedition to climb to the base camp of Everest on the 15th April 2020”.
Just for this morning, try to catch yourself each time you make sweeping generalisations. Then for each one, try to replace it with a more specific word or phrase.
(Expert level: Note also the generalisations that come out of the mouth of others and see what impact that has on you and their comments). Enjoy!
Do we allow up to 264 million people to die worldwide while trying to maintain livelihoods globally or do we attempt to save those people, while corporate, government and personal finances, and therefore all livelihoods, are shredded beyond recognition?
Save lives or save livelihoods? That is the big picture, tough decision that Governments, and their citizens, need to consider, and fairly quickly.
I outlined some of the key considerations in my post the other day which you can access by clicking here.
Most people will have an automatic gut reaction to what is the ‘right’ answer. Try putting that reaction on pause, gather some info, and really think through the next year of unintended consequences. Think like a President or Prime Minister who has to consider millions of others in all their different circumstances.
7.8 billion people infected. 264 million COVID-19 related deaths globally. Of which, 80% were over 60 years old with more than 75% of those having an underlying health issue.
These numbers represent the end game – the potential worst case scenario, at current trends, given the World Health Organisation mortality rate, if every person on the planet where to be infected.
Should the media and its readers really be counting up by ones and tens for each new country, each new city with a confirmed case and each new death? The sooner we can accept that this has the potential to create extremely difficult times, the sooner we can move on and keep what is good, still going.
By that I mean that if we do have the tragic human toll either way (sooner or later), let’s not have a disastrous financial toll too. This is because the financial toll could lead to all sorts of other challenges and human suffering as companies go bust, people lose their jobs and incomes, and then payments for cars, houses, rent, food, medicines etc aren’t made. Then we would have a very harsh economic challenge as well as rising mortality numbers.
In my thoughts, there are three ‘Best case’ outcomes:
Find a cure in March or April 2020: Then all is good. (If not, economic challenges will become severe and worsening)
We quarantine it out of existence such that not one single person has it and then we go back to normal (This could be several months, or more, as we don’t know exactly who has it and there is a carrier lag due to a 14 day incubation period)
We accept it is happening and carry on as normal while changing some habits (no handshakes, wash hands frequently, minimise contact with others while we carry on as normal). We would continue to fly, meet, attend sporting events and conferences etc., while being more cautious, especially around older people.
A fiscal stimulus will not solve this alone. If people are staying home from work and social events – out of concern or government mandates, and they are not producing or consuming as much as before – for the same reasons, then economies will quickly start to falter as airlines, hotels, university sandwich shops, retailers and banks fail, one at a time, in ever rapid succession.
Perhaps we should be carrying on while accepting that there will be significant deaths. If we don’t, and if we don’t find a cure or quarantine it out of existence, the descent into exceptionally hard economic times could be imminent. This could come with severe societal shocks due to high levels of insolvencies and unemployment, a credit freeze and growing crime and unrest.
In addition, there is no amount of stockpiling you can do that will get you through to the end of this, either: unless a cure is found in March, latest April. If supply chains slow down, the real impact will be many months away, not weeks.
This may become our generational thing to get through like all those who had to endure WWI, The Spanish Flu, The Great Depression, WWII and/or the Cold War. Except for the destruction of the wars, this might be all those wrapped up in one. Or not. No one knows how exactly this will all play out.
No one wants to be the person or family infected. But then no one wants to be hit by a car, be told they have cancer or have a heart attack. These are all random events that can impact us or our families and friends at any time. Yet we still go about our days: despite knowing any number of things could send us off to meet our maker. We simply take precautions. We look before crossing the street and eat healthy and exercise. Now we’ll wash our hands more too.
Yes, it’s a little more scary than the other main ways to pass, mainly because it’s new and there is uncertainty.
However, we need to keep calm and carry on. Otherwise, we could make matters far worse.
Accept the end game as a worst case, wash your hands well and frequently, tell important people what you should (sooner rather than later), eat well and exercise so your body is at its best – in case you need to do battle with this virus (or any other life, or lifestyle, threatening situation).
Hopefully the incredibly clever people around the world will discover a cure in the weeks to come. Hopefully it is quarantined out of existence. Hopefully everyone develops an immunity to it.
Regardless, the end game is that 7.55 billion people should survive this flu virus. Odds are you’ll be fine. Most families, however, will be impacted in some way. Be empathetic. Be kind. Be generous where you can.
In 50 years there may be no original content left to create. Everything will have been written, recorded, and documented.
There was a time, maybe several thousand (million?) years ago, when nothing was written down. Then cave dwellers started to create original content on cave walls and rocks. Some of these seem to have withstood the test of time.
Then people started to think, and feel, and create, and words were put on paper, and then music was recorded.
Everyone felt like they were the first and original creator of every idea, tome, piece of music, etc. Without any evidence to the contrary, they effectively were. At least in terms of proof. Though not necessarily in terms of reality.
Were the words written by Marcus Aurelius in Meditations, the first time anyone in history had ever thought those thoughts? Or were they just the first time they were ever captured, written down and eventually published for the world to consume?
As recorded music and books have taken off in popularity and accessibility (cost and ease of creation and consumption) in the last 70 years, more and more unique pieces have been created, written and recorded/published.
With access to GarageBand, or its equivalent/competitors, in the pockets of over 2 billion people, and growing rapidly, won’t every creative piece soon be recorded for history.
How soon will it be, before every word and every note, in every conceivable order, for a love song, or any other type, has been used and is owned by someone? How soon until every type of book has been written and there is nothing new to write?
Maybe it is longer than 50 years. Maybe it is sooner.
On the plus side, there is maybe the idea of excellence and efficiency. All the greatest hits and books will be known and available. The kids of today will know every detail of how to improve quickly, in everything, as every detail of every sport, career and relationship will have been considered, and assessed, and the optimal route to success will be available to all online.
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