7.8 billion people infected. 264 million COVID-19 related deaths globally. Of which, 80% were over 60 years old with more than 75% of those having an underlying health issue.
These numbers represent the end game – the potential worst case scenario, at current trends, given the World Health Organisation mortality rate, if every person on the planet where to be infected.
Should the media and its readers really be counting up by ones and tens for each new country, each new city with a confirmed case and each new death? The sooner we can accept that this has the potential to create extremely difficult times, the sooner we can move on and keep what is good, still going.
By that I mean that if we do have the tragic human toll either way (sooner or later), let’s not have a disastrous financial toll too. This is because the financial toll could lead to all sorts of other challenges and human suffering as companies go bust, people lose their jobs and incomes, and then payments for cars, houses, rent, food, medicines etc aren’t made. Then we would have a very harsh economic challenge as well as rising mortality numbers.
In my thoughts, there are three ‘Best case’ outcomes:
- Find a cure in March or April 2020: Then all is good. (If not, economic challenges will become severe and worsening)
- We quarantine it out of existence such that not one single person has it and then we go back to normal (This could be several months, or more, as we don’t know exactly who has it and there is a carrier lag due to a 14 day incubation period)
- We accept it is happening and carry on as normal while changing some habits (no handshakes, wash hands frequently, minimise contact with others while we carry on as normal). We would continue to fly, meet, attend sporting events and conferences etc., while being more cautious, especially around older people.
A fiscal stimulus will not solve this alone. If people are staying home from work and social events – out of concern or government mandates, and they are not producing or consuming as much as before – for the same reasons, then economies will quickly start to falter as airlines, hotels, university sandwich shops, retailers and banks fail, one at a time, in ever rapid succession.
Perhaps we should be carrying on while accepting that there will be significant deaths. If we don’t, and if we don’t find a cure or quarantine it out of existence, the descent into exceptionally hard economic times could be imminent. This could come with severe societal shocks due to high levels of insolvencies and unemployment, a credit freeze and growing crime and unrest.
In addition, there is no amount of stockpiling you can do that will get you through to the end of this, either: unless a cure is found in March, latest April. If supply chains slow down, the real impact will be many months away, not weeks.
This may become our generational thing to get through like all those who had to endure WWI, The Spanish Flu, The Great Depression, WWII and/or the Cold War. Except for the destruction of the wars, this might be all those wrapped up in one. Or not. No one knows how exactly this will all play out.
No one wants to be the person or family infected. But then no one wants to be hit by a car, be told they have cancer or have a heart attack. These are all random events that can impact us or our families and friends at any time. Yet we still go about our days: despite knowing any number of things could send us off to meet our maker. We simply take precautions. We look before crossing the street and eat healthy and exercise. Now we’ll wash our hands more too.
Yes, it’s a little more scary than the other main ways to pass, mainly because it’s new and there is uncertainty.
However, we need to keep calm and carry on. Otherwise, we could make matters far worse.
Accept the end game as a worst case, wash your hands well and frequently, tell important people what you should (sooner rather than later), eat well and exercise so your body is at its best – in case you need to do battle with this virus (or any other life, or lifestyle, threatening situation).
Hopefully the incredibly clever people around the world will discover a cure in the weeks to come. Hopefully it is quarantined out of existence. Hopefully everyone develops an immunity to it.
Regardless, the end game is that 7.55 billion people should survive this flu virus. Odds are you’ll be fine. Most families, however, will be impacted in some way. Be empathetic. Be kind. Be generous where you can.
Just keep calm and carry on.
