Fascinating Archives - Scott's Thinking

The Randomness Of Life

Posted on December 14, 2020

Look at your best friend, current job, the industry you’re in and your home. Is it exactly as you planned it? The randomness of life is fascinating.

I will guess that most people in their early twenties have barely given a thought to these aspects of their lives. This is especially true if they were asked to project out to when they would be 35 years of age.

How did you find your current best friend? The average person meets about 10,000 people in their lifetime. There are 7.8 billion people on earth. How fascinating that you have a best friend from such a small sample size. And let’s assume that you met half of those people, about 5,000, before the age of 30.

What random event, word or phrase, got you interested in doing your current job? Have you ever wondered which random events occurred earlier in your life to point you into a career in X? You came to be in a certain industry also, which may, or may not, have been by choice

Now consider your home, the location you are in, the type of property and the style of it. You may have looked at only 4-20 properties before selecting one. And those were just the one’s available at the time, that you went to see.

The randomness of life is fascinating.

Observe Think About It

What An Election!

Posted on November 3, 2020

Very tense moments. Emotional roller coaster. So many plot twists and great uncertainty. Who will play the leads in the movie? What an election!

I wrote this early on, before the in person, on-the-day voting started. So I have no idea while writing this, how things turn out. I just foresee it being an exciting night of tension, emotion and high drama. Entertaining!

Did it landslide to the left? Or did it landslide to the right? Are they down to one last voting district that will decide the whole thing? Maybe they are recounting. Oddly, despite lots of pre-election time to vote in person or by mail, some states have allowed people to go past the voting deadline of 3rd November. That seems to be asking for a bit of unnecessary confusion and court involvement.

Neither candidate will want to concede right away if it is super close in some key states. You wouldn’t either after all your effort, money and campaigning.

So unless it is a landslide in the electoral college with no close calls that would change anything, we could have a few weeks of legal battles to get through.

I believe both men will accept the result if it looks fair and convincing or if the Supreme Court needs to rule on it.

Hopefully that won’t be necessary.

What an election!

Observe Think About It

Sample Size Of One

Posted on January 29, 2020

There is incredible power in one data point.

One data point can shift people’s views, swing elections, give great hope, inspire, raise spirits, destroy ambition and generally mess with your mind.

I am sure many of us will have come across the sample size of one in every day use. “My friend said she knows him and that he’s a bit of a psycho. She wouldn’t date him.” This one data point could steer you clear of your soulmate. Or maybe you’ve heard something like, “My brother went and he said it was fantastic. You’ve got to go!”. Or perhaps even, “The man said he knew someone that tried that once and it didn’t turn out very well”.

In these scenarios, a person has referenced only one opinion and yet it can create quite an impression. This is exacerbated when the sample size of one is an extreme example, either good or bad.

Very often the sample size of one is based on unsubstantiated claims, with no context and you are unable to assess the source’s bias. However, despite these limitations we can see people frequently use just one data point to their advantage.

It’s fascinating to watch yourself, or others, get convinced in a conversation or while consuming media. Listen to people use it to strengthen their argument. Many of us will have done this frequently over the years.

Seven billion-ish people on the planet and we can use one data point to sway a position. It may not be right or wrong, but it is fascinating. And powerful.