I read a friend‘s Facebook post this morning where he noted we were in the middle of one of the greatest periods of uncertainty. Are these uncertain times? I should rephrase that to, ”Is it any more uncertain than usual”?
I believe I understood what he was saying, and on the surface I agreed, but it got me thinking.
Yes, probably most of us feel uncertain about the future right now and where this whole crazy situation is going to lead us. Though is that uncertainty any different from March 2019? Or are we simply more aware of the uncertainty?
Life is entirely uncertain. In the future at least.
There is no certainty around when you will meet your perfect match or fall in love. We don’t know if today we will get a call from an old friend, have a heart attack or fender bender, or find a £5 note on the ground.
We pretend there is certainty in our daily lives. We might like to think our lives are stable and not changing. But it is an illusion. We have our routines and expectations which help keep us calm and help us to believe there is certainty. Though, at any second, that routine can be changed by an external factor: Good or bad.
I think we live with constant change and constant uncertainty. Fortunately we don’t usually think about our future as much as we do right now.
Coronavirus Exit Strategy: Use empty hotels to develop Herd Immunity
Stopping this market meltdown, and the fast growing financial and social challenges, requires two things:
1. Making livelihoods our absolute focus (while still saving lives impacted by Coronavirus and managing hospital beds) and
2. Providing a clearly defined end date to this situation. This can be done by immediately starting to develop herd immunity by creating a Government Organised Voluntary Infection (GOVI) programme, for healthy people, in all the UK’s empty hotels
The Problem:
The market, and people generally, require certainty so they can move forward confidently. Currently there is no certainty when considering the end to this pandemic*. Hoping for a viable vaccine provides no certainty. It is like hoping to win the lottery: It’s worth trying, but don’t count on it as your only strategy.
The Solution:
We need a clear, time-bound exit strategy that can show progress is happening and has a clearly defined end date. A GOVI programme would do both.
GOVI explained:
While people are self-isolating in this Suppression Phase, we can roll out a government organised voluntary infection (GOVI) programme at designated hotels (all UK hotels). The GOVI programme would be similar to the idea of chicken pox parties, where healthy children would get together with an infected child and get infected to be done with it. If 50%-80% of the healthy 6-60 population are going to get the Coronavirus at some time anyway, with mostly mild symptoms, why not get it over with?
For WWII, people volunteered to fight in the war effort knowing that there was a significant risk of death or serious injury. These recruits were checked for being in good health (i.e. no underlying conditions) and then sent off to battle the enemy. With more than 700,000 (mostly empty) hotel rooms in the UK alone, the government could pay hotels to host people who are 20-50 years old, and with no underlying conditions, who volunteer to contract the virus under supervision. They would get checked out by a GP, and if ok, they would go to a government designated hotel where they would contract the virus and stay in the hotel for 7-10 days, until ‘immune’. The volunteers are then checked/tested by a doctor before leaving the hotel to confirm their immunity. Once immune, the volunteer gets a document and badge noting that they can re-enter society.
The government would need to authorise and organise this phase to maintain a controlled spread of the virus. They would need to set out the plan of action, acknowledge the challenges and risks involved and call out for suitable volunteers.
GOVI benefits :
In theory we could have c.700,000 very low risk people gaining immunity every 10 days. Over the next 12 weeks (84 days), we could have roughly 5 million people gaining immunity. This could be happening while the 70+ group and the Underlying Condition (UC) group are protected through self-isolation. Additionally, we could continue to have strong social distancing/lockdown policies in place (Suppression Phase), continue testing and encourage scientists to search for and progress a possible vaccine: all concurrently.
It’s more Churchill D-Day then Chamberlain “Peace for our time”. Let’s take the battle to the enemy rather than try to avoid the inevitable. Advance on the enemy rather than simply shield the citizens from harm.
A war time army of volunteers is required and I believe many would be willing to do this. Since there seems to be an overwhelmingly high recovery rate for healthy people aged 18-50 (99.7%), let’s get it and get on with it.
The ever-growing Immune Army can then help high risk people, relieve care workers, support hospital workers and others, or just get back to work. Ever more volunteers will spend a week in the designated hotels until huge swathes of the population are immune.
Within one year, about half of the young and healthy population (25 million people) in the UK will be immune, without having overrun the NHS. In 2 years, most under 70’s and those without known underlying conditions would have immunity (c.55 million). After communicating this plan, normalcy will start to return in weeks to months, demand will return, markets will stop the slide and maybe reverse, and the world can start to mend.
Summary:
Without creating certainty with a credible exit strategy, the markets will continue in meltdown, workers will be laid off, industries will collapse, and the government will have to finance the entire economy, possibly for years. Adding a GOVI programme in parallel to the other strategies/phases being employed, could greatly improve our chances of saving the most lives, from all causes. In addition, the GOVI programme will also put a floor in the economy with a certain and time-bound exit strategy, which will stop the markets sliding. Finally, this additional strategy could save billions of people from suffering through the severe, drawn out, Depression era future that the trends seem to indicate we are heading for.
Link to Mervyn King on CNBC, on Monday, referring to no viable exit strategy, from minute 8:45 to 9:20 (so 35 seconds long).
* Link to Mervyn King on CNBC, on Monday, referring to no viable exit strategy, from minute 8:45 to 9:20 (so 35 seconds long).
FIND MORE DETAIL:
I have added several follow up thoughts for you on my blog website page called Coronavirus Exit Strategy: GOVI. Points covered consider the next 2-3 years and our options. I’ve also added some sources and supporting detail,
‘Rock Star Dies in Tragic Accident’ was the headline I saw 20 years ago while I was walking past Richer Sounds and heading to London Bridge Tube Station. I tried to decipher the headline.
I knew instantly that this death was not of someone I had ever heard of. Had they been sufficiently famous, the newspaper would have put their name in the headline. Jagger Found… or Elton Tragedy… or something like that.
I tried to guess who it could be. I didn’t want to buy the paper to find out. I new I would find out eventually from the tv or a friend if it was sufficiently big news. When I did find out, I don’t recall ever hearing of them.
It was a pivotal moment because it made me really focus on how I assessed what people said and what the media led with as their headline. Since that time, I have always enjoyed playing my own little game of decipher the headline. I enjoy trying to decide whether something is going to be truly important or a waste of time, based on the headline.
You can save a lot of time as you develop the skill of quickly deciphering what the underlying message or motive is to any communication. Sometimes I nail it and sometimes I don’t. But I always enjoy playing the game. If you enjoy mysteries, psychology or solving puzzles, you may like to give it a try.
For some, this is a great time to take stock and think through what they truly want to do in this life. For others, it may have become so crazy busy that they don’t have a moment to pause and think about anything other than the next government announcement and its implications.
Without all the usual kids activities and appointments to arrange and get to, some people may have a few extra minutes (hours) in their day. Or maybe you no longer need to “get ready and commute”, so you may have a little more time now.
For those of you with a little extra time, this is a great opportunity to consider what kind of life you want to look back on when you are 85 years old. What do you want to remember when you are going through your photo albums or chatting to friends or younger relatives. Life flies by quickly, so don’t delay.
Block out an hour in your calendar on a day this week. Be specific with exactly what hour and day it is. It is an appointment with yourself. Then, when that time comes, do nothing else other than reflect and write out a list of things you would love to do, be or have in your life, between now and 85 (125 if you’re already well up there).
Just write all the things that come to mind. Ideally you will do an electronic list which you can save and sort out later on. But it could also be written on a sheet of paper or in a journal. You can always take a photo of it and file it on a device for easy finding later on.
The list does not have to be realistic, believable, conventional, exciting or anything really. What it should be though is a specific list of things on your mind and in your imagination. It could be things like: Spending two weeks on a golden sand beach in the Caribbean, helping your grandson learn French, walking on Mars, writing a funny novel, buying some art from a local artist, becoming a pilot, writing a letter to a loved one, collecting rare stamps or watching The Bucket List (enjoyable movie to get your thoughts flowing – good for most kids too).
This list-writing can be a challenge. Some find this exercise easy and some difficult. Either way, I suggest you do it. Now is a good time. It will give you a focus on things you are looking forward to, once we get life back to something approaching normal. It also helps you clarify what is important. Have fun with it.
When you are having tough times, trying something new, stating an opinion or just trying to get through your day, it is always nice to have a few words of encouragement from others. People need encouragement.
It is so easy for people to criticise, condemn, chastise, laugh at and bully. It requires no interest, curiosity or understanding of the other person.
For the most part, people are trying to do their best with what they know. Give them that benefit of the doubt. Assume their intentions are good unless and until you have conclusive proof that they aren’t.
Reflect on whether you are offering enough encouragement to people. It takes so little encouragement to light a fire under someone, to build them up. Ask questions. Seek first to understand. Assume their intent is good, even if their route to get their desired outcome isn’t the one you would necessarily choose.
Seek first to understand, then to be understood
Stephen R. Covey
Remember, how many Presidents, Prime Ministers, Chief Medical Officers, Doctors etc said nothing in the 1800’s and early 1900’s about smoking. Finally someone took the initiative to speak up about the health issues of a very popular pastime. Going against the accepted wisdom is more easily done with some encouragement.
For those of you with kids or young relatives at primary school age, think about how you might talk down about people you disagree with, whether it is journalists, politicians or business people. Then think how you would feel if your children or young relatives treated other children like that. If it’s bullying when young people do it, it must be called bullying when adults do it. Is there ever really a good justification for it?
Imagine what we could do on this planet if everyone stopped criticising and bullying others, and were more curious and gave words of encouragement. Try catching yourself for the next 24 hours. If you’re honest, it is quite revealing.
We have all faced significant headwinds in our lives and leaning into the challenges ahead will be similar. There will be days where you will be feeling overwhelmed and maybe beaten, but you will press on and get through this.
I am always amazed at people’s tenacity and inner strength when they decide to get through something. The absolute power that we possess inside is quite incredible. By taking each day and each hour as it comes we can get through just about anything.
There are 1,440 minutes in a day and there are 84 days in 12 weeks. So we have 120,960 minutes to enjoy or persevere through at this unique time in the UK. When it is all going well, it will go by quick. Though there will be times when you will feel like the clock has stopped. Either way, stay focused on the bright side of everything.
Enjoy every minute of this unique period in time. Amazing things will happen in your relationships and your life in general, if you stay focused and approach everything, and everyone, with the best intent.
If the challenges get too much, put yourself in a 5 minute time out. Do some slow, deep breathing and relax your mind and thoughts. Remember that in the moment, everything is super important and feels like it really matters. However, the events of that moment are unlikely to be remembered 200 years from now.
If I get too caught up in the moment, I mentally picture myself shooting up into space, all while looking down as the ground disappears below me. As I am rising up, the streets get smaller and I see other cities. As I go higher, the details blur into cities, farmland, forest and large bodies of water. Soon I’m floating in space and looking down at this little blue ball, balanced perfectly in an orbit in space, which has seen wars, peace, contagion and warmth.
In that moment, I remember how significantly insignificant what is happening probably is in the very grand scheme of things. So I breathe and smile as I return back down to earth. Refreshed with perspective, I am once again prepared for the challenges ahead. Try this a few times and let me know if it works for you.
Please do not go and see your mother today. It is the greatest gift you can give her. Yes, it is Mother’s Day in the UK on Sunday 22nd of March 2020, but please do not go to visit.
Your Mother gave you life and the most important thing you can do at this time is help protect hers.
My marvellous Mom lives 3,300 miles away, across an ocean, so there is little chance, in this no-fly era, that I would go and see her today anyway. But for those of you that live close enough to drive, or even walk, I strongly urge you to use Skype, FaceTime, Zoom, etc. or you can simplify and just call her on the phone.
The very last thing you want on your conscience, for the rest of your life, is to think that you may have caused your Mother’s early passing. If she were to come down with the symptoms of this virus within 14 days of your visit, you would probably never forgive yourself. Don’t take that chance this year.
And don’t use the justification that she is getting on and may not have many more, so we want to make this one special. Don’t turn many more into no more.
Have a lovely video chat or a phone call. Remember, she probably grew up in an era where people used the telephone anyway. It will remind her of the days of her youth.
If you really want to make an impact, by reminding her how wonderful she is and how much she means to you, spend the rest of your day crafting a lovely letter to her detailing why. You could even get it done in the morning.
Thank you and best wishes to all of the lovely Mother’s out there.
Sometimes we don’t see it and sometimes we don’t want to see it. If we are still reeling from an event or situation, we may not feel like looking on the bright side.
Whether you see it, don’t want to see it or don’t feel like embracing it, it is still there. Once you step over the little chasm in your mind, and sometimes begrudgingly admit it, it does feel pretty good. So why not get to that spot and start smiling as soon as you can.
From today, soon or recently for others, many of us will be experiencing the new normal. We may enjoy the idea of bits of it and loathe the thought of other bits. Either way, this is our global new normal. So we may as well look on the bright side.
Here are a few things I’ve observed:
It feels so calm. The streets are quiet with very few cars or pedestrians. We just need to be at home – nowhere else. No detailed and challenging calendars to check or update. Time with my son – we went for a run today along the quiet river path and enjoyed a great chat and sprint to the finish: he’s fast. We celebrated a big birthday of a friend on a Zoom conference call involving 3 countries. We cheered on two others having birthdays on Saturday and Sunday too.
People have been friendly, helpful, supportive, calm, pretty optimistic and resolute. Air and general pollution seems to be dropping rapidly and should continue to do so during the new normal period. This is fantastic in general but even more so for all the people that wanted more immediate and severe action on climate change – now it is happening. Schooling is going 100% online – how fascinating it will be to see how it works.
The world has changed. It seems like it happened overnight. There will be challenges ahead.
Remember to look on the bright side of everything. Make it part of your new normal.
What a fascinating time to be here on Earth. What a story you’ll have to tell once we see the back of this situation. This may be the first time in the history of the human species that the whole world has the same common enemy, at the same time, and is communicating in real time, globally, to coordinate and win.
And we all have front row seats.
We are all experiencing this event with slightly different perspectives, depending on what experience, and life awareness, we have had before. For example, despite living in the same household all their lives, each of my children will use their slightly different past experience to make sense of the times we are living through. And, despite everyone on Earth having different perspectives, it would seem that we all want the same outcome: To beat the bug.
I love how individuals and groups are stepping up and popping up to do great things together and for others. Whether it is the medical or scientific world pulling together to find solutions or community spirited groups providing extra help in the local neighbourhood. Our neighbourhood group put a typed note through everyone’s door this week with an offer to help anyone on the street, for them to join the group Whatsapp, and/or call on them if we needed anything (it gave names, numbers and emails of those ready to help). How wonderful! Being fairly new to the street, I felt it was a great idea and really made us feel part of a caring group.
Everyone seems to be pulling together to make the best of the situation. Whether it is with jokes, memes, words of encouragement or empathy, I’ve been struck by the wonderful humanity of it all.
Now is our time to rise to the occasion. Be the best you can possibly be. Help others who are struggling at this moment. Think of who that might be and let them know you are available. Just knowing can be all some people need.
We are facing unprecedented times. But they are not nearly as scary as media (both classical and social), and your mind, are making this out to be.
In the UK, there were 616,014 deaths in 2018. That is nearly 1,700 deaths PER DAY. Coronavirus deaths in the UK since it started, about 30 days ago, now total 104. (in context, over the same 30 days, approximately 51,000 people have died in the UK).
Now lets play out some simple, specific numbers. We will assume the absolute largest number of infections possible in the UK, which would be 100% of the total population or 67,785,240. Then, let’s take the current mortality and expected survival rate, globally, based on confirmed cases of 218,723 and confirmed deaths of 8,943 so far. Using these figures we get a 4.1% mortality rate and 95.9% projected survival rate.
If we remove Italy from these numbers, but leave in the other 172 countries and territories, with at least one confirmed case, the rates change to 3.3% mortality rate and 96.7% survival rate. Finally, if we use Germany, as a best case, which has the 5th highest number of confirmed cases at 12,327 and deaths at 28, it would give them a mortality rate of 0.2% and therefore a survival rate of 99.8%. This is only 0.1% higher than the seasonal flu. Context is critical.
So perhaps at best, we could direct the 70+ population, along with those with underlying conditions of all ages, to self-isolate, and request that the rest of the country get this virus. This could lead to between 153,969 and 2,236,912 deaths. However, experts believe only 50%-80% of people will actually get infected, which could bring these numbers down by almost half. In addition, by removing the vulnerable population from the equation, we are more likely to trend closer to the 153,969 or a UK survival figure of 67,631,271.
Context is critical. The world governments have pumped trillions of dollars into the economy, in the last week, to no positive effect. Few people are consuming, other than the basics, due to fear or government imposed restrictions on movement. And we have only just begun, as we have just passed 200,000 confirmed cases with millions more expected. With markets collapsing, millions predicted to be unemployed and/or the governments straining to pay for everything and everyone to keep going, might there now be a better way?
Perhaps the healthy 6-60 year olds could offer to get this mild (for healthy people) flu-like virus, while the higher risk groups self-isolate (as mentioned above). Experts seem to think 50%-80% of the population will be infected at some point. If this is inevitable, why not sign up now to get it and save the economy and livelihoodsandstill save a lot of people. If you want to read a very brief draft outline of one way we could do this, click here.
Yes, there may not be enough hospital beds. But people tend to die in the field of battle during a war. And this is looking a lot like a war.
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