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Context Is Critical. As Are Facts.

Posted on March 18, 2020

We are facing unprecedented times. But they are not nearly as scary as media (both classical and social), and your mind, are making this out to be.

In the UK, there were 616,014 deaths in 2018. That is nearly 1,700 deaths PER DAY. Coronavirus deaths in the UK since it started, about 30 days ago, now total 104. (in context, over the same 30 days, approximately 51,000 people have died in the UK).

Now lets play out some simple, specific numbers. We will assume the absolute largest number of infections possible in the UK, which would be 100% of the total population or 67,785,240. Then, let’s take the current mortality and expected survival rate, globally, based on confirmed cases of 218,723 and confirmed deaths of 8,943 so far. Using these figures we get a 4.1% mortality rate and 95.9% projected survival rate.

If we remove Italy from these numbers, but leave in the other 172 countries and territories, with at least one confirmed case, the rates change to 3.3% mortality rate and 96.7% survival rate. Finally, if we use Germany, as a best case, which has the 5th highest number of confirmed cases at 12,327 and deaths at 28, it would give them a mortality rate of 0.2% and therefore a survival rate of 99.8%. This is only 0.1% higher than the seasonal flu. Context is critical.

So perhaps at best, we could direct the 70+ population, along with those with underlying conditions of all ages, to self-isolate, and request that the rest of the country get this virus. This could lead to between 153,969 and 2,236,912 deaths. However, experts believe only 50%-80% of people will actually get infected, which could bring these numbers down by almost half. In addition, by removing the vulnerable population from the equation, we are more likely to trend closer to the 153,969 or a UK survival figure of 67,631,271.

Context is critical. The world governments have pumped trillions of dollars into the economy, in the last week, to no positive effect. Few people are consuming, other than the basics, due to fear or government imposed restrictions on movement. And we have only just begun, as we have just passed 200,000 confirmed cases with millions more expected. With markets collapsing, millions predicted to be unemployed and/or the governments straining to pay for everything and everyone to keep going, might there now be a better way?

Perhaps the healthy 6-60 year olds could offer to get this mild (for healthy people) flu-like virus, while the higher risk groups self-isolate (as mentioned above). Experts seem to think 50%-80% of the population will be infected at some point. If this is inevitable, why not sign up now to get it and save the economy and livelihoods and still save a lot of people. If you want to read a very brief draft outline of one way we could do this, click here.

Yes, there may not be enough hospital beds. But people tend to die in the field of battle during a war. And this is looking a lot like a war.

Observe Progress Think About It

Stop Generalising And Get Specific

Posted on March 17, 2020

You may be frequently frustrated if you often use generalisations and the sample size of one. Using words like “they”, “the government”, “everybody” and “no one” can feel good at the time, and can help you speak more quickly, but to your detriment.

In the long run, it is to your advantage to be more precise in the words you speak.

Being more precise in your word selection and word order will make you sound like a more polished individual. You will be clearer and others will understand you better.

A particular time in life, when being specific is more beneficial, is when you are setting your goals. ‘They said I could join them to climb a mountain‘ is good but not nearly as useful as “My climbing instructor, Dave, said I could join their expedition to climb to the base camp of Everest on the 15th April 2020”.

Just for this morning, try to catch yourself each time you make sweeping generalisations. Then for each one, try to replace it with a more specific word or phrase.

(Expert level: Note also the generalisations that come out of the mouth of others and see what impact that has on you and their comments). Enjoy!

Gratitude Observe Reframe your thoughts

“Don’t Know What You Got (Till It’s Gone)”

Posted on March 14, 2020

The world has changed. Completely. 2020 will be known as a pivotal year in human history. And it has only just begun! With more and more countries reducing people’s daily activities, and several countries going into full lockdown, the landscape is changing rapidly.

As with anything that changes, especially if it seems like it is getting worse, we feel nostalgic and sometimes sad for our loss of what was. How good we had it back then; back in 2019.

That’s when this song starts playing in my head. A power ballad by American glam metal band, Cinderella. “Don’t know what you got (Till it’s gone)”. It was released on the 21st May 1988: like an early birthday gift to me.

Although a love song, its melancholy piano, soaring guitar and anguished vocals have frequently reminded me over the years to appreciate all the amazing things we have. Every day.

It’s so easy to appreciate what has gone – though it’s then too late. Yet, it can be quite difficult to appreciate things in the moment. Mostly, this is because many of us are not practicing appreciation everyday. You’ll have more joy in your life if you strengthen this ability on a daily basis.

So today, more than ever, it’s important to appreciate how delicately balanced life and the world is. As people are going through hardships with the loss of loved ones or working through unforeseen financial challenges, be kind, be patient and be tolerant.

Take a few minutes right now to stop everything, close your eyes and appreciate the life you have right now. When you are done reflecting, you can even make a list of 10 things you appreciate in your life right now. Then keep this with you to review daily as the challenges of the days ahead unfold.

Being able to breath without a respirator might be one. The simple act of walking might be another. The ability to buy milk (the money you have, the shop nearby, the milk being in the shop, someone having milked a cow at 5am – remember, I grew up on a dairy farm).

Breathe it in and enjoy it now.

Action Financial Observe Reframe your thoughts Think About It

Coronavirus End Game

Posted on March 11, 2020

7.8 billion people infected. 264 million COVID-19 related deaths globally. Of which, 80% were over 60 years old with more than 75% of those having an underlying health issue.

These numbers represent the end game – the potential worst case scenario, at current trends, given the World Health Organisation mortality rate, if every person on the planet where to be infected.

Should the media and its readers really be counting up by ones and tens for each new country, each new city with a confirmed case and each new death? The sooner we can accept that this has the potential to create extremely difficult times, the sooner we can move on and keep what is good, still going.

By that I mean that if we do have the tragic human toll either way (sooner or later), let’s not have a disastrous financial toll too. This is because the financial toll could lead to all sorts of other challenges and human suffering as companies go bust, people lose their jobs and incomes, and then payments for cars, houses, rent, food, medicines etc aren’t made. Then we would have a very harsh economic challenge as well as rising mortality numbers.

In my thoughts, there are three ‘Best case’ outcomes:

Find a cure in March or April 2020: Then all is good. (If not, economic challenges will become severe and worsening)
We quarantine it out of existence such that not one single person has it and then we go back to normal (This could be several months, or more, as we don’t know exactly who has it and there is a carrier lag due to a 14 day incubation period)
We accept it is happening and carry on as normal while changing some habits (no handshakes, wash hands frequently, minimise contact with others while we carry on as normal). We would continue to fly, meet, attend sporting events and conferences etc., while being more cautious, especially around older people.

A fiscal stimulus will not solve this alone. If people are staying home from work and social events – out of concern or government mandates, and they are not producing or consuming as much as before – for the same reasons, then economies will quickly start to falter as airlines, hotels, university sandwich shops, retailers and banks fail, one at a time, in ever rapid succession.

Perhaps we should be carrying on while accepting that there will be significant deaths. If we don’t, and if we don’t find a cure or quarantine it out of existence, the descent into exceptionally hard economic times could be imminent. This could come with severe societal shocks due to high levels of insolvencies and unemployment, a credit freeze and growing crime and unrest.

In addition, there is no amount of stockpiling you can do that will get you through to the end of this, either: unless a cure is found in March, latest April. If supply chains slow down, the real impact will be many months away, not weeks.

This may become our generational thing to get through like all those who had to endure WWI, The Spanish Flu, The Great Depression, WWII and/or the Cold War. Except for the destruction of the wars, this might be all those wrapped up in one. Or not. No one knows how exactly this will all play out.

No one wants to be the person or family infected. But then no one wants to be hit by a car, be told they have cancer or have a heart attack. These are all random events that can impact us or our families and friends at any time. Yet we still go about our days: despite knowing any number of things could send us off to meet our maker. We simply take precautions. We look before crossing the street and eat healthy and exercise. Now we’ll wash our hands more too.

Yes, it’s a little more scary than the other main ways to pass, mainly because it’s new and there is uncertainty.

However, we need to keep calm and carry on. Otherwise, we could make matters far worse.

Accept the end game as a worst case, wash your hands well and frequently, tell important people what you should (sooner rather than later), eat well and exercise so your body is at its best – in case you need to do battle with this virus (or any other life, or lifestyle, threatening situation).

Hopefully the incredibly clever people around the world will discover a cure in the weeks to come. Hopefully it is quarantined out of existence. Hopefully everyone develops an immunity to it.

Regardless, the end game is that 7.55 billion people should survive this flu virus. Odds are you’ll be fine. Most families, however, will be impacted in some way. Be empathetic. Be kind. Be generous where you can.

Just keep calm and carry on.

Action Observe Progress

You Know Where You Could Be Doing Better

Posted on March 9, 2020

So start with that. Right now.

Action Observe Progress Reframe your thoughts

Your Mind Is More Powerful Than Google – Be Very Careful

Posted on March 6, 2020

Type a question into Google and it will search, very quickly, and find the answer for you.

Your brain works the same way for questions. Your brain will search for the answer.

So be careful what question you ask it, especially out of frustration. For example, sometimes we use self talk, like, “Why am I so stupid?”, after having done something that seems a little silly to have done (Like forget our keys in the house, leave our tickets on the counter, or miss an appointment.)

Your brain is now required to search for, and find, an answer, or five, that could be correct, just like Google does. (Hopefully you don’t get 17,563,897 responses in one millisecond for that question!). Like Google, your brain tends to find answers that have been given frequently, recently or that others think is correct.

It does not mean it is correct, and the source of the answer may be a bit suspect (your sister or brother, that old boss who was a tyrant, your difficult classmate when you were eight years old, or an ineffective teacher from your past).

So please be very careful what you say, or ask, out loud, or under your breath. Your brain is compelled to give you an answer to that question. Rather, ask those slightly rhetorical questions that you would love to hear the answer to. Perhaps, “What makes me such a great friend?”, “How kind am I?”, “How can I set up my environment to succeed next time”.

Your brain is super powerful. Use it for good and to support you. Try preparing and practicing a few helpful questions right now, and then again throughout the day. Selecting better words, in a better order, and forming better questions, will be life-changing. Go on, give it a try.

Action Gratitude Observe Progress

You’ve Got This!!

Posted on March 1, 2020

You’re an exceptional person. Sometimes you forget that. Let’s get some perspective on this.

That you were born at all, is quite a statistical feat. Never mind the point that you wake up every morning, have thoughts, can organise yourself (reasonably well), breathe, eat, turn food into energy – without even trying, and your eyes are deciphering these splotches on this page, feeding back the signal, while your super-computer of a brain is interpreting what my brain has tried to communicate. All that alone is simply amazing.

Then there is the whole thing about you and your accomplishments. You probably played at something that you were reasonably good at like a sport or musical instrument. Possibly you were a good student and did well on exams or on the chess club. Maybe you got player of the match once, won a final, went to the county championships or got on the Dean’s list.

Then you may have learned how to drive a car. It’s an everyday thing but it requires exceptional hand/eye motor skills that we take for granted. Perhaps you’ve had a very good relationship, quit an unhelpful habit, made a speech in front of some people, applied for a role, got interviewed and landed a job. Maybe you travelled somewhere all on your own, gave blood, or won a ribbon, medal or cup.

In the big scheme of things, I am certain you have achieved quite a few things in your life so far. Write down a list of at least 10 things that you have had success with – any kind of success. If you get on a roll, keep going. See if you can get 20, 30 or 80 items on your list of things you have achieved, or at least feel pretty good about – for whatever reason.

Then keep this list nearby. Add to it when you can. Review it once a week for the next 5 weeks; or every night before you go to bed. Remind yourself how you have done all sorts of pedestrian and amazing things to get you here, to this point, in life. Whatever is ahead for you, you will succeed with it.

You are an exceptional person.

You are an achiever.

You’ve got this!!

Action Observe Reframe your thoughts

The Easier Way To Get Great Results!

Posted on February 27, 2020

Three of the best ways to get great results are:

Motivation
Discipline
Environmental modification

Motivation is great, positive, and easier in the short term. Though a day or a week might be all you can handle before it wears off.

People often say that motivation doesn’t last. Well, neither does bathing – that’s why we recommend it daily.
Zig Ziglar

Discipline is difficult. It is about overcoming what you want to do and doing what you should, regardless of how you feel. You just do it. Although, it does get easier in the longer term as you train your brain and it simply becomes a habit.

Environmental modification makes everything easier. You won’t need motivation or discipline to spring out of bed at the alarm or stop you from pushing the snooze button. If you place your alarm on the far side of the room and ensure the volume is up high, you will have no choice but to wake up. You’ll race across the room to turn it off but that will have got you out of bed.

And if your running or gym gear was left out, beside the alarm, it would be so easy to just slip into it and head off for some exercise.

If you want to modify what you consume, simply don’t buy things you are trying to stay away from (chocolate, cigarettes, alcohol). It’s a lot easier to exercise self discipline when you have to leave the house to get something you may be craving. By the time you get yourself out of the house to buy the item, your motivation for change, and your growing self discipline, may have kicked in and you’ll be able to stop and head back home without making an unwanted purchase.

Set yourself up to win today. Modify your environment first. Look around and see what you can change right now. It will make using your motivation and self discipline so much easier and more effective.

Action Observe Progress Think About It

What Ten Words Describe You?

Posted on February 23, 2020

Can you describe yourself? It’s a great exercise. Try it right now.

Grab a pen and paper or toggle into your notes section of your device.

Write the numbers from 1 to 10. Then see how many single words (or short phrases) you can write about yourself, up to a maximum of 10.

These words should describe what you think of you, right now. It’s not what your best friend thinks of you or what you think your mother might say. Be as objective and honest/realistic as you can. You don’t have to show anyone.

To get your mental gears going, here are a few examples:

Olympian
Tea lover
Clean Air Advocate
Student
Soccer/Football fan

This is not a forever list. It can change as your life changes or your perception changes.

For those of you in the advanced class, now write 10 words/short phrases you would like to describe you by 1 January 2022.

If you had put smoker today, you may want to become a Clean Air Advocate by 2022. If you had put Olympian, you may want to describe yourself as a gold medalist after this summers’ Olympics. You may wish to move from ‘good father’ to ‘world class dad’.

These two lists are good steps to help you learn about yourself and see what you can achieve.

Many people will spend far more time planning their holiday than they will discovering who they are and what changes they could make to bring more joy to their life.

Consider this the first step towards becoming the person you would most like to be. Still yourself: Just a better version of you.

Go make those lists!

(If you get stuck, go into the Facebook group pages and I can help you out.)

Action Observe Reframe your thoughts

Focus On The Outcome You Want

Posted on February 22, 2020

This seems to be the highest probability way to get what you want in life. If you are not getting things that you want, check your word selection and order, listen carefully to your self-talk and be mindful of the questions you ask and statements you make: even in jest.

As you focus on achieving the outcome you are looking for, your mind gathers information, evidence, options, connections and other relevant materials to make this work.

The same is true if you happen to mention things you don’t want. This is why people that happen to mention the negative outcome they don’t want, seem to attract the negative outcome.

It is not a guaranteed way for things to work out positively or negatively, but there seems to be a higher probability that what you focus on, speak about, think through and ‘see’, is more likely to come to pass.

Just try framing things in a positive, specific way each time you refer to something. Catch yourself when you say things using a negative or it is the opposite of what you want. For example, “What if she says no?” Could be reframed to, “What if she says yes?”. “I don’t want to spend hours shopping, I don’t have time today”, could become, “I want to be quick and select only the things I need and clearly want so I can be done in 20 minutes.”

Give it a try today. See if you can spot when you‘re framing something in the negative. Give yourself some kudos if you find yourself framing or re-framing in the positive. If you don’t already do this, it can take some time to become a habit. It is worth it though. Good luck!